![]() So they could make all kinds of adjustments. This time around in September they may actually change some acreage numbers taking in some FSA data, which would be unusual. But like you say, there could be a lot more that they could do. So that sounds reasonable in comparison with the crop tours that we've seen this summer. The expectation for corn is that they're going to cut the yield to 172.5 or something. We can say what we want but until you see those numbers who really knows. Kub: Yeah, I should have started this whole show with a disclaimer that anything we say here today kind of just goes out the window at about 11:00 a.m. What do you make about what is to happen on Monday in corn specifically? USDA is going to release something on Monday, highly anticipated because we haven't had as much data from USDA. Yeager: Let's move around DC to another government agency. So you have sort of a mismatch in timing between these two central banks and I wouldn't get too worried about this being a longer term phenomenon. Federal Reserve does their own interest rate raise in two weeks. But that's sort of a short-term thing until the U.S. They raised interest rates, the Euro goes up, the dollar goes down, wheat goes up. But let me tell you about the dollar this week, we had a reaction based on what was going on in the European Union. Kub: Wheat, wheat is typically more sensitive to the dollar. dollar is impacting wheat, also impacting corn. It would be tempting to do some sort of an option strategy to keep a little bit of ownership. You want to sell to avoid the potential problems or to take advantage of this while you can. Yeager: Real quick, what are you doing then? Are you hanging tight? So you have sort of a bearish tilt but you can never get too bearish because something strange may happen geopolitically. Nevertheless, we have plenty of the stuff. Here in the United States you look at the futures spreads and the story is that there is bearish ample supply of wheat despite the drought that we have experienced in this country in wheat country for years now. ![]() So there's sort of in my opinion a bearish tilt to the supply thing. Kub: That it's available to the worldwide market. That theory is out there too that that's what Russia is putting on the market. Actually during the month of August that grain corridor was kind of working and somewhere in the range of 1 million metric tons theoretically made it out of Ukraine and there's the possibility of lots more coming out of Russia because they had such a big crop and the ruble is weak, etcetera, etcetera. Kub: Yeah, I mean it's hard to get very bearish for wheat because there is always going to be this threat that something new may happen to disrupt those shipments across the Black Sea. Yeager: So you're saying stability is a winner over the instability of before? Honestly some stability is better than the wild volatility that we experienced earlier this spring. That chart is pretty flat at the moment and that may be about as good as we can hope for. But the overall impact of each of them together is kind of nothing. North Dakota and Minnesota are late harvesting the spring wheat crop. Kub: You're right, there's a lot of subtle little things and you could kind of go one way or the other. Yeager: The wheat discussion it would be pretty easy just to say wheat (?) because it's hard to make sense with Australia having a large crop, it's still dry as we're getting ready to plant a winter wheat crop, there's possible rain and cooler temperatures coming for some of that same area and then there's this Vladimir Putin saying Ukraine is not doing enough exports to Africa. Yeager: Joining us now to provide some insight is Elaine Kub. And the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index moved lower by almost 12 points to finish at 645.75. October crude oil lost 42 cents per barrel. And the October lean hog contract rebounded with a $3.15 move up. The livestock market was higher as October cattle gained $1.13. Over in the dairy parlor, October Class III milk futures improved 87 cents. December cotton expanded $1.63 per hundredweight. The bean bears and bulls are doing rock, paper, scissors over whose turn it is to drive the soy complex as the November contract dropped 8 cents. For the week, the nearby wheat contract jumped 59 cents, while the December corn contract added 19 cents. ![]() Russia rhetoric on Ukraine cast a shadow over the trade that was making moves ahead of a USDA report coming Monday.
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